Foreign Intrusions

The revolution on the streets of Egypt is heading into day 7. The security forces have long since abandoned the streets leaving 40+ dead and countless injured. The army has replaced them, and for the most part they've merely observed the protesters and not engaged them, and in some cases have even protected them. It seems strange to an outsider looking in, the vast difference in the relationship between the security forces and the population verses the one the army shares with the people.

The army is the largest one in the region, and it is the source of Egyptian nationalism and pride. The population is grateful to them for protecting them during the many wars it has fought with Israel before Camp David accords that the United States helped broker in the late 1970s which forged a cold, but stable peace between the two foes.

And the security forces (police) well to be blunt everybody hates their guts. They are corrupt and brutal. They've tortured, killed and disappeared many in the 30 years under Mubarak's regime.

The army, on the other hand has never attacked its population. This is largely due to the fact that it is the people's army. The majority of the army is made up of conscripted Egyptian males that have a 2 year service. These conscripts reflect Egypt, an Egypt that has lost its the middle class, an Egypt with no economic opportunities, an Egypt oppressed.

During these days of massive protests, there have been widespread reports of looting, and lawlessness as the police have left the cities. Impromptu neighborhood "watches" have been set up, if you will, of young men with makeshift weapons protecting their neighborhoods against looters. Many feel that Mubarak's government is behind the looters, that this is a strategic move to make people feel helpless, and afraid. But if they've managed to come out in the tens of thousands across several cities in Egypt despite being brutalized and killed for almost a week now, I think its safe to say a bunch of looters won't scare them now.

I've heard many say that Mubarak's future hinges on the military. The upper echelons of the army are fiercely loyal to Mubarak, the recruits are not, they are just every day Egyptians who share the sentiments of the protesters. So really it hinges on the mid-level officers, will they heed Mubarak's orders or will they openly side with the people.

But I think its immaterial at this stage. The army will decide how many more will die, but it cannot stop the tide. The people have decided they will not be cowed, they've sacrificed to much to go back, tasted a little bit too much freedom for them to step down.

And I won't lie, Egypt's kind of a big deal. People around the Middle East are watching this intently. Perhaps not more so than Israel. Remember that Camp David peace accord, well that paved the way for peace with Jordan, and negotiations with the Palestinian authority. A change in Egypt might be the end of all that. And since Israel doesn't exactly have many friends in the region, a loss of one like Egypt would be problematic to say the least.

By the way, Egypt isn't the only place on fire right now. There are protests going on in Yemen and Jordan, but have western news outlets reported on them? No, because really its all about Egypt.

In Sudan protesters came out in Khartoum today at 11 am, and they were quickly crushed, 40+ taken into custody and have still not been released or located. They, the Sudanese are being inspired by their brethren to the north. They are watching closely, because a regime change in Egypt would be a game changer for Sudan. And unlike Mubarak, Bashir is not well liked internationally, after all he's wanted for war crimes.

I'm optimistic, and so happy to be alive to bear witness. But my optimism is tinged with a bit of fear. There are dangerously disingenuous intentions in the air. Apparently the security forces will be back on the streets tomorrow. And according to several NGOs operating in Egypt, Mubarak's government has asked the U.S. for repressive anti-riot equipment, and the U.S. refused, but supplies came in today from Israel carrying internationally banned anti-riot gear.... I'm afraid that it's about to get very ugly.