The new year, and Sudanese Independence Day is almost upon us. Darfur appears to be President Omar Bashir's Waterloo. All his allies have withdrawn support and it appears he has no choice but to step down as president. But then anything can happen, he could be extradited and tried at the Hague, and most likely be found guilty, only to die in some European prison far away from all he loves and all who love him. Without the office of the presidency behind him, to protect him from his sins, his position is uncertain to say the least. Why step down then? He is facing increasing pressure within the party and internationally, they mean to have his head. Bashir is between a rock and a hard place.
And the rebels, at least the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) have developed a new strategy. Hurt Khartoum by attacking its economic interests. Bring the war of the provinces to the center. There appears to be weekly raids on the rich oil posts of southern Kordofan province. Disruption in oil production would slice at the heart of the regime, the source of most of its income. Meanwhile the South is not subtly racing to acquire arms in the form of fighter jets and artillery from China and Russia.
If Bashir decides to step down, his successor would most likely be Ali Osman, who is untainted by Darfur. However he is not a military man, and many fear that the army will rebel and stage of coup if Bashir is forced to step down.
In the South there are rumors of corruption and debauchery at the highest levels. But perhaps that was to be expected. The famished oft become glutenous. We can only hope they'll awaken soon enough and deliver on the promises of roads, schools, and hospitals. That a civilian population ravaged by neglect and disease and displaced by war and hunger will finally receive their basic rights as people.
