The revolution on the streets of Egypt is heading into day 7. The security forces have long since abandoned the streets leaving 40+ dead and countless injured. The army has replaced them, and for the most part they've merely observed the protesters and not engaged them, and in some cases have even protected them. It seems strange to an outsider looking in, the vast difference in the relationship between the security forces and the population verses the one the army shares with the people.
The army is the largest one in the region, and it is the source of Egyptian nationalism and pride. The population is grateful to them for protecting them during the many wars it has fought with Israel before Camp David accords that the United States helped broker in the late 1970s which forged a cold, but stable peace between the two foes.
And the security forces (police) well to be blunt everybody hates their guts. They are corrupt and brutal. They've tortured, killed and disappeared many in the 30 years under Mubarak's regime.
The army, on the other hand has never attacked its population. This is largely due to the fact that it is the people's army. The majority of the army is made up of conscripted Egyptian males that have a 2 year service. These conscripts reflect Egypt, an Egypt that has lost its the middle class, an Egypt with no economic opportunities, an Egypt oppressed.
During these days of massive protests, there have been widespread reports of looting, and lawlessness as the police have left the cities. Impromptu neighborhood "watches" have been set up, if you will, of young men with makeshift weapons protecting their neighborhoods against looters. Many feel that Mubarak's government is behind the looters, that this is a strategic move to make people feel helpless, and afraid. But if they've managed to come out in the tens of thousands across several cities in Egypt despite being brutalized and killed for almost a week now, I think its safe to say a bunch of looters won't scare them now.
I've heard many say that Mubarak's future hinges on the military. The upper echelons of the army are fiercely loyal to Mubarak, the recruits are not, they are just every day Egyptians who share the sentiments of the protesters. So really it hinges on the mid-level officers, will they heed Mubarak's orders or will they openly side with the people.
But I think its immaterial at this stage. The army will decide how many more will die, but it cannot stop the tide. The people have decided they will not be cowed, they've sacrificed to much to go back, tasted a little bit too much freedom for them to step down.
And I won't lie, Egypt's kind of a big deal. People around the Middle East are watching this intently. Perhaps not more so than Israel. Remember that Camp David peace accord, well that paved the way for peace with Jordan, and negotiations with the Palestinian authority. A change in Egypt might be the end of all that. And since Israel doesn't exactly have many friends in the region, a loss of one like Egypt would be problematic to say the least.
By the way, Egypt isn't the only place on fire right now. There are protests going on in Yemen and Jordan, but have western news outlets reported on them? No, because really its all about Egypt.
In Sudan protesters came out in Khartoum today at 11 am, and they were quickly crushed, 40+ taken into custody and have still not been released or located. They, the Sudanese are being inspired by their brethren to the north. They are watching closely, because a regime change in Egypt would be a game changer for Sudan. And unlike Mubarak, Bashir is not well liked internationally, after all he's wanted for war crimes.
I'm optimistic, and so happy to be alive to bear witness. But my optimism is tinged with a bit of fear. There are dangerously disingenuous intentions in the air. Apparently the security forces will be back on the streets tomorrow. And according to several NGOs operating in Egypt, Mubarak's government has asked the U.S. for repressive anti-riot equipment, and the U.S. refused, but supplies came in today from Israel carrying internationally banned anti-riot gear.... I'm afraid that it's about to get very ugly.
Sunday, January 30, 2011
Friday, January 28, 2011
If the People Should One Day Desire to Live....
A couple of months ago if someone had asked me if I thought the regime in Tunisia would change anytime soon, I would've laughed at their naivete.
Like others I disregarded the growing resentment and discontent in the populace with rising food prices, lack of economic opportunities and political oppression. While the economic situation was deteriorating Ben Ali's family seemed to be getting richer.
I forgot or perhaps I stopped believing that one act, that one act of desperation, self-immolation of a struggling, college graduate, can become the rallying call of disenfranchised. That in the words of the famous Tunisian poet Abulgasim Al Shabi, "if the people should one day desire to live then fate will answer."
They marched, they protested, thousands and in a small country like Tunisia, a population that never protested it means something. It means something that a hundred people were killed. That day after day people left their homes, and put themselves in harms way because they wanted life. And fate has answered for the Tunisian people, their former dictator in hiding, his ill-begotten fortune hunted down on behalf of the Tunisian people. His allies arrested, and a new government is being shaped.
The events of Tunisia have become an inspiration for others around the Arab world where repressive, corrupt dictatorships, rising food prices, lack of economic opportunities are the norm. Countries from Jordan to Egypt and Yemen have had large demonstrations expressing their anger. Everyone is watching Egypt. They are undeniably a key U.S. ally, and a regional powerhouse with a large population second only to Nigeria on the African continent, and the largest in the Arab Middle East.
As I type this, the Egyptian government has shut down facebook, twitter, and other modes of social networking. There are reports of complete internet shut down, the whole nation off line. But its too late, now that people have seen what can happen if they go out in force they refuse to back down. They, the Egyptian people, Muslim and Christian will go out everyday and protest. Some will be killed, others injured, arrested and possibly tortured, they come out because as one protester said "My life right now is as if I'm dead."
Arab dictators, the media is your enemy. You can no longer hide your crimes in silence. You can try to arrest, intimidate reporters, but more will come, and there are cameras everywhere and they will record your sins and transgressions.
Arab dictators heed the words of your population, respect them and their anger. They now understand what all people should know, that they can do anything, that they are not powerless and at the mercy of their leaders. You, dear dictator, only govern by their will.
And as I say to all the other populations, Arab and non-Arab that wish to live, the same thing I'm told by aunties at every wedding I attend, "3gbal laki", roughly translated, may you have the same fate.
Like others I disregarded the growing resentment and discontent in the populace with rising food prices, lack of economic opportunities and political oppression. While the economic situation was deteriorating Ben Ali's family seemed to be getting richer.
I forgot or perhaps I stopped believing that one act, that one act of desperation, self-immolation of a struggling, college graduate, can become the rallying call of disenfranchised. That in the words of the famous Tunisian poet Abulgasim Al Shabi, "if the people should one day desire to live then fate will answer."
They marched, they protested, thousands and in a small country like Tunisia, a population that never protested it means something. It means something that a hundred people were killed. That day after day people left their homes, and put themselves in harms way because they wanted life. And fate has answered for the Tunisian people, their former dictator in hiding, his ill-begotten fortune hunted down on behalf of the Tunisian people. His allies arrested, and a new government is being shaped.
The events of Tunisia have become an inspiration for others around the Arab world where repressive, corrupt dictatorships, rising food prices, lack of economic opportunities are the norm. Countries from Jordan to Egypt and Yemen have had large demonstrations expressing their anger. Everyone is watching Egypt. They are undeniably a key U.S. ally, and a regional powerhouse with a large population second only to Nigeria on the African continent, and the largest in the Arab Middle East.
As I type this, the Egyptian government has shut down facebook, twitter, and other modes of social networking. There are reports of complete internet shut down, the whole nation off line. But its too late, now that people have seen what can happen if they go out in force they refuse to back down. They, the Egyptian people, Muslim and Christian will go out everyday and protest. Some will be killed, others injured, arrested and possibly tortured, they come out because as one protester said "My life right now is as if I'm dead."
Arab dictators, the media is your enemy. You can no longer hide your crimes in silence. You can try to arrest, intimidate reporters, but more will come, and there are cameras everywhere and they will record your sins and transgressions.
Arab dictators heed the words of your population, respect them and their anger. They now understand what all people should know, that they can do anything, that they are not powerless and at the mercy of their leaders. You, dear dictator, only govern by their will.
And as I say to all the other populations, Arab and non-Arab that wish to live, the same thing I'm told by aunties at every wedding I attend, "3gbal laki", roughly translated, may you have the same fate.
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