NATO for Africa

It took the international community weeks of waiting, hand wringing and negotiations to draft, and pass UN security council resolution to impose a No-fly zone over Libyan airspace. In the mean time, thousands of lives were lost and impacted in Libya. Gaddafi's forces retook cities and towns and began a campaign to disappear and torture thousands of Libyans.

And though it was painful to watch the obvious reluctance of the United States and others to get involved I understood it. After an unpopular war in Iraq that did not have the backing of the international community, President Obama's reluctance seems prudent. The world and perhaps more specifically the U.S. is caught up in the specter of Somalia in 1991, Rwanda in 1994, and Iraq in 2003. And these images are forever etched into our psyche and brought up when the world is faced with massacres or the threat mass killings.

And the world is fraught with tension. The U.S. does not want to see images of U.S. troops invading another Arab, Muslim nation, even if with Arab League's blessing.

I think its safe to say that instruments such as the United Nations and the international community has failed in the prevention of crimes against humanity, i.e. Darfur. But what is the alternative?

I'd argue the importance of neighborhood and region. There is simply more incentive to take action if you're affected by chaos in the neighboring country, such as the arrival of hundreds of thousands of refugees on your border. If you're half way across the world, with an ocean separating you perhaps you are hesitant to commit your resources and the lives of your country to come to the aid of another country. And that is why Africa needs a NATO.

It'll be a challenge. The resources, infrastructure is lacking. There are still several dictators and authoritarian governments strewn across the continent, but democracy is a crafty and contagious creature. Stealthily creeping across borders. I would like to imagine if such an organization existed people like Gbago in Ivory Coast would think twice before overturning the results of the elections, and Gaddafi may have conceded to the demands of his people and left. Perhaps they wouldn't have, but even so at least there would be an organization on the ground that would be willing and able to react quickly and decisively.

And maybe there are too many countries in Africa for one central organization. It could be more feasible and efficient to have a series of military agreement treaties for west Africa, east Africa, southern Africa and northern Africa.

Either way I think lessons learned from Rwanda, Ivory Coast, Libya, and Sudan are clear. Africa needs its own NATO.

The Revolution and the Madness of Gbagbo

In the coverage of the revolutions that have swept the Middle East and North Africa there has been very little talk about the implications for Africa south of the Sahara. It seems people forget that Libya, Tunisia and Egypt are very much in Africa. Egypt's Abdel Nasser was one of the founding fathers of Pan-Africanism.

What happens in these nations do not only send reverberations throughout the Arab world but through the African world as well. There is no clear division between Arab and African at least as it relates to Arab nations on the African continent. Our minds like to categorize, and catalog into neat, clean, little boxes. It's difficult for us to handle messy, complicated shades of gray, but so few things are clear cut in the world.

I'd ask you to think about the language Arabic. I would argue and am in agreement with linguists in classifying it as an Afro-Asiatic language. This is not in contradiction of its evolution from Aramaic, and its classification as a Semitic language. After all, Amharic and Tegreni, both Semitic languages that have evolved from Aramaic are also Afro-Asiatic languages spoken in Ethiopia and Eritrea.

But I digress, I want to tell you another story. Our story begins like so many after an election. It takes place in the beautiful nation of Cote D'Ivoire, where it is quite possible similar scenes witnessed in Libya may soon play out there. Cote D'Ivoire or Ivory Coast as us Anglophones know it, is a Francophone nation in west Africa. It is the main producer of cocoa. Once an economic powerhouse, its capital Abidjan was known as "little Paris", and it was once the headquarters of the African Development Bank.

In November, Outtara a Muslim from the north of the country, was declared victor of the presidential elections. Unfortunately the incumbent, Gbagbo, a Christian from the south of the country, refused to cede power despite being visited by a number of influential African leaders, and guaranteed by the Economic Consortium of West African States (ECOWAS) that he would be granted amnesty, and could leave the nation with his wealth intact (ill-begotten no doubt). Now the international community has refused to recognize him as president, and he faces economic blockades, and military embargoes. It is a mystery to me how he continues to pay government employees, the most important group for an illegitimate leader is of course the army.

Both men have now set up parallel governments, although Ouattara is restricted to his hotel, and is guarded by UN forces. These elections were supposed to help the country move on from the bloody, disastrous civil war that engulfed it in recent years and pitted north vs south, Muslim vs Christian.

I cringe to categorize, and pit one against the other but unfortunately it very much reflects the reality on the ground. Muslims in Cote D'Ivoire are mainly from the north, are less educated and poorer than their Christian counterparts and.... represent a big chunk of the population, in fact they have a slight majority. There majority has not been reflected in government or positions of leadership. Inequality does not just happen, it is deliberate, manufactured and controlled.The rebellion in the north was the result of decades of frustration at the obvious discrimination and inequality faced by the Muslim population.

Now the rebels in the north have once again taken up arms. Many have called for peaceful demonstrations but troops loyal to Gbago have responded with force killing several. If the situation continues to deteriorate then I have no doubt the country will be engulfed in another bloody civil war....The hope is that Gbagbo proves to be saner than Gaddafi, and will quit the field before countless die.

There are talks of Egypto-Tunisian like revolutions in Zimbabwe, Djibouti, Sudan to name a few. What is happening is not occurring in a bubble or in isolation, the whole world feels the reverberation, just think how much more money we will pay at the pump as conflict continues in Libya....

Contrary to the mantra of our foreign policy, time and time again history has proven that it is in the best interest of the world that everyone is guaranteed a life of freedom to live in peace and dignity.

The Bravery of the Libyan People

Gaddafi, dressed in his usual safari/bedouin chic clothing just finished an hour rant where he declared war on the Libyan people. He refuses to acknowledge that the protesters are rational, sane, Libyan citizens. Rather he says that they are drunks, druggies, and gang members wanting to devastate Libya. Gaddafi and others of his ilk, the name Robert Mugabe comes to mind cannot dissociate the nation from themselves. An attack on them, is an attack on the nation.

Gaddafi says he is prepared to fight until the end, and to die a "martyr." I have often questioned his sanity and his grip on reality, but this is too much even for him. He has ordered his forces to bomb, slaughter, and exterminate the population. To put down the opposition, the protesters by any means necessary.

There is an emergency meeting of the UN security council, of the Arab League, but it is all for naught. All useless bits of paper and proclamations that mean nothing. I'm aghast at the images coming from youtube courtesy of mobiles. Bodies strewn across cars and streets, blood running and in some cases flowing. There is a complete black out of news and information so nothing can be confirmed. But I know, like many others that the death toll is in the hundreds if not thousands. That there are countless injured, and I know that the killing may very well continue until as Saif Al Islam Gaddafi said "the last bullet....the last woman and child."

I wish I had faith in the global community, that someone, anyone could stop this massacre, the killing. Don't make the mistake in thinking the Libyan people need a hero, they are their own hero.

What is needed is sanity, because if nothing else the other despots were at least sane...

Libya

It seems that segments of the army have turned against Gaddafi. Probably moved by the senseless killing of 100s yesterday. People in military uniform opened fire on protesters killing an estimated 300 people. 300 people, that is an astronomical number of people. I can't even fathom that number.

The people in military dress are mercenaries at least that's what many Libyans claim. That these men are not Libyans, but rather people from neighboring countries.

There are reports that Benghazi has been "taken over" by civilians after they laid siege to the military compound. Allegedly military grade weapons have been passed out to civilians. Also reports of celebrations in the streets. The "mercenaries" have reportedly been captured.

Where is Gaddafi in all this. He has retreated to his ancestral Bedouin home near Sirt. Saif Gaddafi, one of his sons, is scheduled to make a statement. One can only guess that it will be similiar to the statements made by Ben Ali and Mubarak (both leaders are reportedly very ill, rumors of them both being in a coma).

I imagine the speech will recognize the desire of the people, make a series of concessions, declare that there will be elections in a couple months, meanwhile there will be a caretaker government. At this stage it may be necessary for Gaddafi to leave Libya for Saudi. I cannot imagine any western country will take him.

The African Union (AU) just lost about 50% or more of its budget. Its a well known fact that Gaddafi, aka the king of kings, is the main funder of the AU. But Gaddafi and his relationship with Africa south of the Sahara is for another day.

Interesting tid bit, that warms my heart and makes me hope that change is coming. Omar Bashir has started to reach out to the youth and college grads, making them hollow promises of jobs, and including them in the government.

And in an effort to legitimise themselves as a national, inclusive government rather than one dominated by one party, and a couple of ethnic groups squabling amongst each other, said goverment has made an offer to a close relative of mine, the position of governor of the central bank of Sudan. He's the perfect candidate you see, he's actually qualified for the job, he comes from a marginalized northern ethnic group, and he's an active member of the opposition group they overthrew in a military coup in 1989. Of course he declined.

Again we must ask, where will the revolution lead to next....Sudan (please God), Djibouti, Cote D'Ivoire?

The Revolution Continues....

A couple weeks ago my cousin joked that when Mubarak goes, the following day we'll hear that Gaddafi has imprisoned every citizen. I laughed, but not without discomfort. Because this joke struck a little too close to reality. There is real excitement, and fear that things can and will change, that there is such a thing as people power. But like in many places, an insurrection in Libya would be met with force, and that means blood will be spilled, lives will be destroyed. There have already been deaths in Libya and Bahrain.

In Libya, Benghazi, the second major city after the capital Tripoli has a history with Gaddafi. Most of the political prisoners are from this city, it makes sense that any type of insurrection would come from this city. It also home to banned Islamist party.

Many are dismissing the protests in Libya. Believing that what happened in Tunisia and Egypt will not happen in Libya. But I do not buy into this school of thought.
In response to the protests Gaddafi released several hundred political prisoners. As a gesture of good-will, or at least that's what he told the population. This to me means that Gaddafi is uneasy if nothing else. And may just serve to further encourage the movement.

Now Bahrain is a story of a minority in this case Sunni Muslim monarchy, ruling over a majority, Shii Muslims. Now a casual observer knows something is wrong with a society if the majority has the lowest education, wealth and health measures in the population.

During the first couple of days, the monarchy was willing to negotiate and concede everything except the main demand: turning the monarchy from a absolute one to a constitutional one, the latter being more in the line of British monarchy.

Obviously dissatisfied, a case of too little too late, the protests continued. And now Bahrain, has outlawed protests, and called forth its security forces.

You might say who cares, its Bahrain, so tiny. But tiny Bahrain is part of the intricate, disgustingly complex fabric of geopolitics. The Arab gulf which includes Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Oman, Yemen etc is majority Sunni, with pockets of Shias. And close by, and always watching is Iran which is majority Shia. Fairly or unfairly, the political Shias in Iraq have been accused of getting support from Iran. And we know for a fact that Hizb-Allah,which is basically holding Lebanese political system hostage, is directly supported by Iran. So you can believe that the other countries in the gulf are watching the developments in Bahrain closely.

Of course a democratic Iran would be a game changer....

Spoilers Part II

Quick update there have been protests in the city of Benghazi, Libya. Estimates are hundreds to a couple thousand. Despite this most people think it is unlikely that Gaddafi will lose power, but it still something to be concerned about if you are Gaddafi...

I forgot the weirdest spoiler from the list. Our very own Omar Bashir of Sudan. Shortly after Mubarak was deposed, he was on state-owned television with a crowd of women and school children. He loves this crowd, makes him look stately, and paternalistic. Bastard.

He declared to all that the youth are vital, they are the future, and that he congratulates the great youth of Egypt for demanding their freedom. And then he followed this up, by dancing with his carved cane (not functional purely decorative). This might perplex you, a singing and dancing president. It might have perplexed the Sudanese populace at one time, but he's been dancing now for the past decade or so. He danced after defying the International Criminal Court to arrest him for war crimes. Its comical watching him, like a fumbling bear in the circus.

The man is either demented, or disingenuous. Telling the Sudanese that he believes in the power of youth, and believes in freedom when only a couple weeks ago his security forces killed, injured, and imprisoned said youth for daring to protest, and demanding change.

Another interesting development, Omar Bashir has now joined Facebook. Apparently he's somewhat concerned about possible campaigns planned on social networks. He's hoping to befriend these young Sudanese activists and convince them of his fun, hip and humane ways. Short of that he hopes to entrap, imprison, torture, kill, anything to keep him president. Because unlike Mubarak, if he's deposed they'll be shipping his ass to the Hague to stand trial for war crimes. (Heard rumors that these charges may be dismissed since he's behaved so well, by get this, accepting the right of self-determination for the southern Sudanese people. Oh Omar you are such a good boy, down boy, sit).

So if you're lucky you might get to friend a dictator, yay!

The Spoilers

And there are many including Colonel Gaddafi of Libya who condescendingly told the Tunisians that they made a big mistake in getting rid of Ben Ali. He was quite vocal in condemning the Tunisia people telling them that "Kleenex has fooled you, why did you believe their lies, there is no one better for you than Ben Ali." If you are confused by the Kleenex reference you are not alone. Gaddafi has his own language and sometimes occupies his own universe, Kleenex is apparently his word for Wikileaks. Interestingly enough he has been silent since Mubarak was deposed. Perhaps it hit a bit too close to home. Mubarak a military man, in power for 30 years, and Gaddafi another military man who has been in power for some 40 odd years. Gaddafi was in his late 20s when he came into power through a.... surprise, surprise, military coup! There hasn't been much noise coming out of Libya, but then the country has strict laws against protests and assembly. But nothing is beyond the realm of possibility..

Then there are the Iranians. They watched Tunisia without comment. When Egypt came they were on news channels, trying desperately to co-opt the movement. Claiming that the protesters were inspired by the Iranian Islamic Revolution of the 1970s. What a joke. If anything they were inspired by the opposition protests in Iran not so long ago, and then broken by the regime's brutal, and merciless response. And just as the Iranian regime feared thousands are organizing once again in Iran, protesting and calling for reform, for change, and for a basic human right, freedom. May God protect the citizens of Iran because if we are to put our faith in the actions and rhetoric of this regime they mean to exterminate the opposition. The political executions that have happened just in the last year or so boggles the mind, and saddens the heart. For a quick article on political executions in Iran (http://www.rferl.org/content/iran_republic_of_executions/2304190.html)

Let's not forget the smug bastards, these are the monarchies that for all intents and purposes are safe. These are your King Abdullahs of Saudi, the Sheikhs of the various Emirates etc. They've been making statement admonishing the populace as if they're little children misbehaving. In King Abdullah's defense I think he's tired of building compounds for deposed leaders, let's see Iddi Amin of Uganda was exiled there, now it looks like Ben Ali, and maybe Mubarak will be living in Saudi. And please God let Omar Bashir of Sudan end up there soon, or no better yet in a jail cell in the Hague.

I can picture the brochure advertising this compound that, it will read: Saudi Retreat, your palace away from your palace. Activities: group therapy with other deposed dictators, couples therapy with your wives, group pilgrimage to Mecca guaranteed absolution for rapacious greed, torturing and killing of one's citizens. Coming soon interfaith circle, and visits to the Vatican as we expect to receive Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe.

And not all monarchies are safe....Bahrain?

Tunisia Revisited

In the past couple of weeks, the world has been engrossed by scenes of defiance, strength and deliberation of the Egyptian people. We forgot to look or ask about the nation that started it all, Tunisia.

Despite Ben Ali fleeing, many are still dissatisfied, and protests as well as death continue each week. The interim government has many stalwart Ben Ali supporters who refuse to quit or go. The youth are impatient for jobs, they demand progress, and change.

The political situation continues to untenable, and unstable. So risky that many investors have stayed away, and tourism, which traditionally is a big chunk of the economy has been reduced to almost nil.

The supporters of Ben Ali rub their hands in glee, falsely claiming that things were better under the deposed leader.

As they say the patience is a virtue. And all is not lost. But if we are going to assign blame I think it’s safe to place it at Ben Ali’s door. Honestly it is quite difficult to have robust opposition parties and organize civil society when they’re banned.

Technically, according to the constitution there needs to elections in the next two months after incapacitation of a president, but it is in no one’s best interest to have elections so soon. The interim government has assigned a commission to prepare the country for elections sometime in July. It is a huge task, as in the first real elections ever, heralding in a second republic if you will.Simultaneous presidential and parliamentary elections, with the new constituent assembly drafting a constitution.

Preparing the country for elections is going to be hard work. According to many on the election commission, the electoral code and related laws were full of legal tricks inserted by Ben Ali to ensure his rule, and abate any challenges. Tricky bastard.

Although this commission is a-political shall we say, they are mandated to consult with main opposition parties including the Islamist party. Some in Tunisia and outside are very concerned about them. Some going as far as lobbying to continue Ben Ali’s ban on them. The belief is that they might very well come into power. Once in power the story is that they’ll be up to no good and do all sorts of naughty things becoming a ‘Ben Ali’ so to speak but using Sharia law instead of secular law.

The party has already ruled itself out of presidential election, but this has not abated the many concerns. Since they are a party that has committed itself to democracy and civilian society, they are entitled to all the rights of any given political party.

This will indeed be a test of democracy. After all democracy is measure of how well you respect the rights of your citizens, including the treatment of minorities and minority views.

The Answer

Today Mubarak has resigned. The streets of Egypt erupted with jubilation. To say that people were shocked would be an understatement. Just the day before he'd made a defiant and frankly insulting speech to the Egyptian people. Telling them that the "martyrs", people that his forces had killed, had not died in vain, that they would not be forgotten. His clumsy attempts at co-opting the movement were infuriating in its sheer audacity. He told the world he understood, and would make changes, and delegate his powers to the VP, but he made it clear that he would finish his term due to expire in September.

I thought to myself, he's just challenged his people, and given hope and succor to dictators across the Arab world. The Egyptian people, they've been protesting for two and half weeks. Hundreds of thousands across Egypt, they're not going to work, they're not going to school, they are out in the streets. And I thought, how are they taking care of basic human functions. And then I found out that people have been organizing to feed the protesters, provide child-care and the like. There are stations to charge cellphones, laptops. Information, images, messages are getting out.

This is not a random event, this my friends is a sophisticated, well organized, empowered movement. It doesn't belong to any one ideology, but it does belong to one generation, the youth.

It makes sense that this is youth driven. After all, over 60% of the population is under the age of 30. The majority of them are college graduates, and of those roughly 70% are unemployed or underemployed. In the past decade, the price increases of basic necessities have outpaced the rise in wages. While at the same time, regimes have gotten progressively more corrupt and repressive. These statistics are generalizable to other countries in North Africa and Arab Middle East.

Corrupt how you ask? Well it is estimated that Mubarak's assets are about 30 Billion dollars. So what, that's 1 billion for each year he ruled. Enough said. As to repression well we're talking harassment and imprisonment of opposition members, outlawing of political parties, imprisonment of journalists, shutdown of print and other forms of media.

It is no wonder that dictators across the Arab world are very much afraid. The youth in Egypt are connected through social networking to their counterparts in other countries. Before long the systems and tactics used in Egypt will be transplanted to other nations. At least that is what I hope, and what dictators dread.

But remember this is not a random event. People didn't just wake up and decide to protest. Yes something happened to inspire the youth to rise up. It was watching what happened in Tunisia, and the resentment that has built over the decades was already near boiling point. That desire for freedom was always there, is there, Tunisia helped break the wall of fear.

When you protest in a country ruled by a dictator, you are taking your life in your hands. You are risking death, imprisonment and torture. As I write this I can't say for sure I would make this same choice. I am humbled and awed by the bravery, and sacrifice of millions.

My father has not been sleeping for a week. He says he can't sleep, he's captivated by the scenes from protests in Yemen, Jordan, and of course Egypt. He's an incurable optimist and has great hopes for Sudan and even Zimbabwe. Despite his euphoria he's saddened by the very preventable loss of life in Egypt.

We're both a bit perplexed by Mubarak. The people have spoken, they want you to leave. But for some reason he is determined to stay, and perhaps he was told by foreign advisers/supporters that he needs to stay for "stability." But I think any objective observer would hardly label the present situation as stable.

I had a feeling it would get ugly, but I obviously did not have complete grasp of the situation. I'm not sure who the Mubarak "supporters" are, these people that have been violently attacking demonstrators, by all accounts a group that has been largely, non-violent and peaceful.

It seems that the army will have to once again step in and referee, otherwise the bloodshed, and chaos will continue.

Mubarak squandered a historic moment, he could be remembered as nationalistic figure, not willing to impose his will, or lead to the death of his citizens. Instead he has forever painted himself as one of the most hated figures in modern Egyptian history. The lives forfeited will neither be forgotten or forgiven.

In the end, the world will witness the same result, an Egypt without Mubarak. We all hope that it will be a peaceful, thriving, and democratic one. The question now is, how many more need to die before he leaves, how much blood must run through the streets before he is satisfied.

Foreign Intrusions

The revolution on the streets of Egypt is heading into day 7. The security forces have long since abandoned the streets leaving 40+ dead and countless injured. The army has replaced them, and for the most part they've merely observed the protesters and not engaged them, and in some cases have even protected them. It seems strange to an outsider looking in, the vast difference in the relationship between the security forces and the population verses the one the army shares with the people.

The army is the largest one in the region, and it is the source of Egyptian nationalism and pride. The population is grateful to them for protecting them during the many wars it has fought with Israel before Camp David accords that the United States helped broker in the late 1970s which forged a cold, but stable peace between the two foes.

And the security forces (police) well to be blunt everybody hates their guts. They are corrupt and brutal. They've tortured, killed and disappeared many in the 30 years under Mubarak's regime.

The army, on the other hand has never attacked its population. This is largely due to the fact that it is the people's army. The majority of the army is made up of conscripted Egyptian males that have a 2 year service. These conscripts reflect Egypt, an Egypt that has lost its the middle class, an Egypt with no economic opportunities, an Egypt oppressed.

During these days of massive protests, there have been widespread reports of looting, and lawlessness as the police have left the cities. Impromptu neighborhood "watches" have been set up, if you will, of young men with makeshift weapons protecting their neighborhoods against looters. Many feel that Mubarak's government is behind the looters, that this is a strategic move to make people feel helpless, and afraid. But if they've managed to come out in the tens of thousands across several cities in Egypt despite being brutalized and killed for almost a week now, I think its safe to say a bunch of looters won't scare them now.

I've heard many say that Mubarak's future hinges on the military. The upper echelons of the army are fiercely loyal to Mubarak, the recruits are not, they are just every day Egyptians who share the sentiments of the protesters. So really it hinges on the mid-level officers, will they heed Mubarak's orders or will they openly side with the people.

But I think its immaterial at this stage. The army will decide how many more will die, but it cannot stop the tide. The people have decided they will not be cowed, they've sacrificed to much to go back, tasted a little bit too much freedom for them to step down.

And I won't lie, Egypt's kind of a big deal. People around the Middle East are watching this intently. Perhaps not more so than Israel. Remember that Camp David peace accord, well that paved the way for peace with Jordan, and negotiations with the Palestinian authority. A change in Egypt might be the end of all that. And since Israel doesn't exactly have many friends in the region, a loss of one like Egypt would be problematic to say the least.

By the way, Egypt isn't the only place on fire right now. There are protests going on in Yemen and Jordan, but have western news outlets reported on them? No, because really its all about Egypt.

In Sudan protesters came out in Khartoum today at 11 am, and they were quickly crushed, 40+ taken into custody and have still not been released or located. They, the Sudanese are being inspired by their brethren to the north. They are watching closely, because a regime change in Egypt would be a game changer for Sudan. And unlike Mubarak, Bashir is not well liked internationally, after all he's wanted for war crimes.

I'm optimistic, and so happy to be alive to bear witness. But my optimism is tinged with a bit of fear. There are dangerously disingenuous intentions in the air. Apparently the security forces will be back on the streets tomorrow. And according to several NGOs operating in Egypt, Mubarak's government has asked the U.S. for repressive anti-riot equipment, and the U.S. refused, but supplies came in today from Israel carrying internationally banned anti-riot gear.... I'm afraid that it's about to get very ugly.

If the People Should One Day Desire to Live....

A couple of months ago if someone had asked me if I thought the regime in Tunisia would change anytime soon, I would've laughed at their naivete.

Like others I disregarded the growing resentment and discontent in the populace with rising food prices, lack of economic opportunities and political oppression. While the economic situation was deteriorating Ben Ali's family seemed to be getting richer.

I forgot or perhaps I stopped believing that one act, that one act of desperation, self-immolation of a struggling, college graduate, can become the rallying call of disenfranchised. That in the words of the famous Tunisian poet Abulgasim Al Shabi, "if the people should one day desire to live then fate will answer."

They marched, they protested, thousands and in a small country like Tunisia, a population that never protested it means something. It means something that a hundred people were killed. That day after day people left their homes, and put themselves in harms way because they wanted life. And fate has answered for the Tunisian people, their former dictator in hiding, his ill-begotten fortune hunted down on behalf of the Tunisian people. His allies arrested, and a new government is being shaped.

The events of Tunisia have become an inspiration for others around the Arab world where repressive, corrupt dictatorships, rising food prices, lack of economic opportunities are the norm. Countries from Jordan to Egypt and Yemen have had large demonstrations expressing their anger. Everyone is watching Egypt. They are undeniably a key U.S. ally, and a regional powerhouse with a large population second only to Nigeria on the African continent, and the largest in the Arab Middle East.

As I type this, the Egyptian government has shut down facebook, twitter, and other modes of social networking. There are reports of complete internet shut down, the whole nation off line. But its too late, now that people have seen what can happen if they go out in force they refuse to back down. They, the Egyptian people, Muslim and Christian will go out everyday and protest. Some will be killed, others injured, arrested and possibly tortured, they come out because as one protester said "My life right now is as if I'm dead."

Arab dictators, the media is your enemy. You can no longer hide your crimes in silence. You can try to arrest, intimidate reporters, but more will come, and there are cameras everywhere and they will record your sins and transgressions.

Arab dictators heed the words of your population, respect them and their anger. They now understand what all people should know, that they can do anything, that they are not powerless and at the mercy of their leaders. You, dear dictator, only govern by their will.

And as I say to all the other populations, Arab and non-Arab that wish to live, the same thing I'm told by aunties at every wedding I attend, "3gbal laki", roughly translated, may you have the same fate.